Guyana's Natural Resource Fund (NRF) could hold about US$83.9 billion in real terms by 2041, according to an analysis by SphereX Professional Services Inc. The figure is adjusted for inflation and comes from scenario-based modelling.

The projection appears in a report dated 18 October by Joel Bhagwandin, the firm's director of financial advisory and strategy. The model draws on petroleum production, oil price movements, investment returns and withdrawal rates. Mr Bhagwandin also serves as a director and vice president of the Guyana Oil and Gas Energy Chamber, according to his professional profile.

The fund was established by the Natural Resource Fund Act 2019 to manage petroleum revenues. Its stated objectives include preventing volatile resource revenues from producing volatile public spending, and transferring wealth fairly across generations. The report describes the fund in similar terms, as a buffer against commodity price shocks and as an asset intended to preserve wealth after oil production ends. Withdrawals require approval from the National Assembly.

The size of the projection is large against the fund's recent history. A Ministry of Finance statement for March 2024 recorded a closing balance equivalent to about US$2.36 billion. Reaching the report's figure would depend on years of continued production at current or higher levels, and the analysis says the balance remains sensitive to market returns, oil prices, output and the statutory withdrawal rules. A change in any of these would move the result, which is why the figure is best read as one scenario and not as a single expected outcome.

SphereX advises policymakers to treat two questions separately. The first is how much the law allows the government to withdraw. The second is how much capital the domestic economy can absorb without creating inefficiencies. A withdrawal that falls within the legal limit can still exceed what the economy is able to use well, and the report says the practical test should carry equal weight with the statutory one.

The analysis also addresses public borrowing. A growing fund strengthens national financial resilience, according to the report, but a large balance does not remove the need to examine how productive government borrowing is, or how it is composed. The point matters in a country where the fund and the national debt exist side by side, and where the size of one does not settle questions about the other.

On the use of oil revenue, the report recommends directing money into productive non-oil sectors. It names logistics, transport, agriculture, energy reliability, education and institutional capacity. These areas would widen the economy beyond petroleum and support the revenue base that must eventually replace oil income.

The report concludes that oil revenues can finance Guyana's economic transition, and that sustained growth over the long term depends on building a strong non-oil economy. That position matches the purpose set out in the 2019 Act, which directs resource wealth towards national development priorities as well as saving.

Readers should weigh the source. SphereX is Mr Bhagwandin's own firm, and the report is a scenario analysis and not an official forecast. The Ministry of Finance publishes monthly statements on the fund, which show deposits, withdrawals and investment income. Those figures will show how closely the actual balance follows the path the model describes.

The assumptions on production and prices will matter most. Output from the Stabroek Block is rising as new vessels come into service, and the revenue that reaches the fund depends on both volume and price. Withdrawals set in the annual budget will determine how much of that revenue stays in the fund. The report does not remove these uncertainties, and its figure for 2041 will change as each of them does.

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