Nigeria is seeking between $30 billion and $50 billion in foreign investment for its offshore oil and gas sector by the end of the decade, in a bid to restore its standing as the continent's foremost destination for energy capital.

The target depends on the delivery of 22 major deepwater projects due to begin development between 2026 and 2030. Officials view the programme as central to reviving an industry that has lost ground to rival markets in recent years, at a time when the country remains heavily reliant on oil revenue to fund its budget.

The scale of the ambition reflects how far the competitive landscape has shifted. Guyana's rapid emergence as a low-cost, high-yield producer has drawn a wave of international attention since ExxonMobil's discoveries in the Stabroek block. Namibia's Orange Basin has followed a similar trajectory, with finds by TotalEnergies and Shell prompting comparisons to the North Sea in its early years. Both have offered international oil companies faster returns and fewer of the operational complications long associated with West African projects.

That competition has come at a cost to Nigeria. Over the past decade, oil majors scaled back onshore operations in response to persistent theft from pipelines, ageing infrastructure that pushed up maintenance costs, approval processes that could stretch on for years, and a policy environment that investors regarded as unpredictable. Several companies, including Shell and ExxonMobil, sold off onshore assets during this period, redirecting capital towards frontier markets offering simpler entry.

Nigerian regulators now argue that the picture has changed. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission points to the Petroleum Industry Act, passed in 2021, as the turning point, crediting it with clarifying fiscal terms and giving companies greater confidence in long-term planning. The commission has approved more than $57 billion in Field Development Plans since 2024, moving a number of projects closer to final investment decisions. A further licensing round is expected to build on the 37 oil and gas blocks awarded to 31 companies last year.

Infrastructure remains an acknowledged weakness. The commission has said poor infrastructure continues to hold back development across the continent's oil sector, and Nigeria's response has focused on expanding gas gathering systems and requiring third-party access to shared facilities. The aim is to reduce costs for smaller operators and shorten the time between discovery and production, both of which have historically discouraged investment in the country's offshore fields.

The push is tied to production targets that would mark a significant turnaround for an industry that has struggled with output well below its capacity for much of the past decade. Nigeria is aiming to raise crude production to 2 million barrels per day by 2027, and to 3 million barrels per day by 2030, roughly double current levels. Meeting those figures would depend heavily on the deepwater projects now being courted for investment, since offshore fields are less exposed to the theft and community disruption that have hampered onshore output.

The effort unfolds against a difficult backdrop for the wider industry. Oil companies have grown more cautious with capital spending as the energy transition accelerates and prices remain volatile, and West African producers are competing for a smaller pool of available investment than in previous decades. Nigeria's case rests on convincing companies that its regulatory environment has genuinely stabilised, rather than merely promising improvement.

For a government that depends on oil for the bulk of its foreign exchange earnings, the outcome carries consequences well beyond the energy sector. Success would help secure Nigeria's position in a global market increasingly shaped by newer, faster-moving producers. Failure would leave the country further behind rivals that have already demonstrated they can deliver returns more quickly and with fewer complications.

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