Travel and tourism economies across Central and South America are forecast to grow faster than the global industry average in 2026, according to projections that point to a year of broad-based regional expansion. While other parts of the world contend with the effects of geopolitical instability, particularly disruption to transit routes in the Middle East, forecasters expect the Americas to be largely shielded from these pressures, supported instead by steady domestic travel and a marked rise in spending by international visitors.

Globally, the travel sector is expected to generate $12 trillion in 2026, equivalent to 9.9 per cent of world GDP, and to support around 376 million jobs. The baseline growth rate for the global industry is put at 3.2 per cent. Central and South America is forecast to exceed that figure, with regional tourism GDP projected to rise by 4.1 per cent. International visitor spending in the region is expected to climb by 7.8 per cent, more than double the global rate of 3.7 per cent. The sector is projected to support roughly 18.5 million jobs across the continent, representing 8.3 per cent of the regional workforce.

The figures vary considerably by country. Ecuador is expected to record the strongest growth in tourism GDP, at 11.6 per cent, with Bolivia close behind at 10.3 per cent, driven in part by a 25.8 per cent rise in international spending. Venezuela's projected rebound is the most striking, with tourism GDP forecast to expand by 33.2 per cent and international visitor spending by 34.8 per cent, figures that reflect a low base following years of contraction rather than a sudden surge in absolute visitor numbers. In Central America, Panama and Guatemala are forecast to grow their tourism sectors by 8.4 per cent and 6.1 per cent respectively. Larger, more established markets are expected to post steadier gains: Colombia at 5.7 per cent, Argentina at 4.9 per cent and Brazil at 2.1 per cent.

Analysts caution that sustaining this momentum will depend on continued investment in infrastructure, route connectivity and workforce training. They also flag risks that could slow growth, including inflation, weaker consumer confidence and concerns over affordability for travellers, particularly given the cost pressures still affecting many source markets.

Guyana, though not among the larger economies referenced directly in the regional outlook, appears well placed to benefit from the broader shift in travel patterns the forecast describes. As South America gains appeal as a comparatively stable alternative to destinations affected by conflict elsewhere, smaller markets with strong recent momentum stand to gain disproportionately. Guyana recorded 453,489 visitor arrivals in 2025, a rise of 22 per cent on the previous year, and the government has set a target of 550,000 arrivals by the end of 2026.

The country has been investing in the infrastructure that the regional forecast identifies as critical to sustaining growth. This includes expanded airline partnerships at Cheddi Jagan International Airport and a wave of new hotel developments in Georgetown aimed at meeting rising demand for accommodation. Guyana's recent economic expansion, driven largely by its oil sector, has also brought a significant increase in corporate travel, with companies and international organisations sending staff and delegates for business meetings and conferences. Tourism officials have suggested this corporate traffic could be used to introduce visitors to the country's eco-tourism sector, much of which is run by local and indigenous communities in the interior.

Whether Guyana reaches its 2026 arrivals target will depend partly on factors outside its control, including the pace at which regional air connectivity expands and how international travel budgets respond to ongoing cost pressures. For now, the broader regional forecast suggests the conditions for continued growth, both in Guyana and across Central and South America, remain favourable heading into the second half of the year.

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